Oleksandria 1–0 Polessya: Result & Stats

Oleksandria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Polessya

11/3/2024

Premier League · Round 12CSC Nika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Oleksandria19%

×Draw22%

Polessya59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OleksandriaExpected goals in this matchPolessya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.89

Oleksandria

0.98

Polessya

1.89

Polessya creates 93% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

0.86

creates per match

1.98

1.79

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Oleksandria

0.86

Polessya

1.98

allows per match

Oleksandria

1.79

Polessya

1.10

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

Oleksandria-0.11scores less

Polessya-0.60scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Polessya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw

41%

Oleksandria or Polessya

78%

Draw or Polessya

81%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+

7%

Polessya wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals

62%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

26%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

8%

Polessya 1+ goals

85%

Polessya 2+ goals

56%

Polessya 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

25%

Polessya (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 8 matches

Polessya away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.10 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 0.86 + Polessya defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Polessya attack 1.98 + Oleksandria defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Oleksandria scores more

19%

level

22%

Polessya scores more

59%

Polessya at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff