Polessya 0–3 Fiorentina: Result & Stats

Polessya

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Fiorentina

8/21/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff roundFutbal Tatran Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Polessya25%

×Draw23%

Fiorentina51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PolessyaExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.80

Polessya

1.20

Fiorentina

1.80

Fiorentina creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 27 away

1.25

creates per match

1.85

1.75

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Polessya

1.25

Fiorentina

1.85

allows per match

Polessya

1.75

Fiorentina

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polessya+0.00on par

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polessya ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Polessya or draw

49%

Polessya or Fiorentina

77%

Draw or Fiorentina

75%

Winning margin

Polessya wins by 2+

10%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Polessya 1+ goals

70%

Polessya 2+ goals

34%

Polessya 3+ goals

12%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

83%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

54%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Polessya (draw refunded)

33%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polessya at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polessya attack 1.25 + Fiorentina defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.20

Fiorentina attack 1.85 + Polessya defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Polessya scores more

25%

level

23%

Fiorentina scores more

51%

Fiorentina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff