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Fiorentina vs Polessya — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Polessya
Polessya
8/28/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff roundMAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fiorentina54%
×Draw21%
Polessya26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
2.21
Polessya
1.48

Fiorentina creates 49% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 4 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
2.41
Polessya
1.75

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.22
Polessya
2.00

finishing

Fiorentina+0.00on par
Polessya+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Polessya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
74%
Fiorentina or Polessya
79%
Draw or Polessya
46%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
33%
Polessya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
89%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
65%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
38%
Polessya 1+ goals
77%
Polessya 2+ goals
43%
Polessya 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
68%
Polessya (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Polessya away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 2.41 + Polessya defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Polessya attack 1.75 + Fiorentina defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fiorentina scores more
54%
level
21%
Polessya scores more
26%

Fiorentina at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiorentina vs Polessya

Fiorentina beat Polessya 3-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 28, 2025.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.