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Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv — Premier League 2019

Polessya
Polessya
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
5/9/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Tsentralnyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Polessya29%
×Draw23%
Dynamo Kyiv47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polessya
1.34
Dynamo Kyiv
1.76

Dynamo Kyiv creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Polessya
2.01
Dynamo Kyiv
2.49

allows per match

Polessya
1.02
Dynamo Kyiv
0.67

finishing

Polessya-0.46scores less
Dynamo Kyiv+0.51scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polessya ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Polessya or draw
53%
Polessya or Dynamo Kyiv
77%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
71%

Winning margin

Polessya wins by 2+
13%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Polessya 1+ goals
74%
Polessya 2+ goals
39%
Polessya 3+ goals
15%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
83%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
52%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Polessya (draw refunded)
38%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polessya at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.02 · 11 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polessya attack 2.01 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.34

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.49 + Polessya defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Polessya scores more
29%
level
23%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
47%

Dynamo Kyiv at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Polessya 0–0 Dynamo Kyiv

Polessya and Dynamo Kyiv drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Zhytomyr.