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Dynamo Kyiv vs Polessya — Premier League 2019

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Polessya
Polessya
11/10/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv46%
×Draw23%
Polessya31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.77
Polessya
1.42

Dynamo Kyiv creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.44
Polessya
1.98

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.86
Polessya
1.10

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.64scores less
Polessya-0.60scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Polessya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
69%
Dynamo Kyiv or Polessya
77%
Draw or Polessya
54%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
25%
Polessya wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
83%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
53%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
26%
Polessya 1+ goals
76%
Polessya 2+ goals
41%
Polessya 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
60%
Polessya (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.86 · 5 matches

Polessya away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.10 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.44 + Polessya defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.77

Polessya attack 1.98 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
46%
level
23%
Polessya scores more
31%

Dynamo Kyiv at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dynamo Kyiv 2–1 Polessya

Dynamo Kyiv beat Polessya 2-1 in Premier League on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Kyiv.