Polanka nad Odrou 4–0 Dětmarovice: Result & Stats

Polanka nad Odrou

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dětmarovice

3/27/2022

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 15Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polanka nad Odrou71%

×Draw16%

Dětmarovice13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polanka nad OdrouExpected goals in this matchDětmarovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.04

Polanka nad Odrou

2.67

Dětmarovice

1.04

Polanka nad Odrou creates 157% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 18 away

1.78

creates per match

1.11

0.98

allows per match

3.56

creates per match

Polanka nad Odrou

1.78

Dětmarovice

1.11

allows per match

Polanka nad Odrou

0.98

Dětmarovice

3.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par

Dětmarovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polanka nad Odrou ↓

Dětmarovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Polanka nad Odrou or draw

87%

Polanka nad Odrou or Dětmarovice

84%

Draw or Dětmarovice

29%

Winning margin

Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+

50%

Dětmarovice wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals

93%

Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals

74%

Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals

49%

Dětmarovice 1+ goals

65%

Dětmarovice 2+ goals

28%

Dětmarovice 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)

85%

Dětmarovice (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polanka nad Odrou at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Dětmarovice away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Dětmarovice defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.67

Dětmarovice attack 1.11 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Polanka nad Odrou scores more

71%

level

16%

Dětmarovice scores more

13%

Polanka nad Odrou at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Polanka nad Odrou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff