Dětmarovice vs Polanka nad Odrou

Dětmarovice

CANC

15:30

Polanka nad Odrou

6/27/2021

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 26Fotbalové hříště SK Dětmarovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dětmarovice30%

×Draw24%

Polanka nad Odrou47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DětmaroviceExpected goals in this matchPolanka nad Odrou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.73

Dětmarovice

1.33

Polanka nad Odrou

1.73

Polanka nad Odrou creates 30% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 63 away

1.50

creates per match

1.78

1.67

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Dětmarovice

1.50

Polanka nad Odrou

1.78

allows per match

Dětmarovice

1.67

Polanka nad Odrou

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dětmarovice+0.00on par

Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dětmarovice ↓

Polanka nad Odrou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dětmarovice or draw

53%

Dětmarovice or Polanka nad Odrou

76%

Draw or Polanka nad Odrou

70%

Winning margin

Dětmarovice wins by 2+

13%

Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Dětmarovice 1+ goals

74%

Dětmarovice 2+ goals

38%

Dětmarovice 3+ goals

15%

Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals

82%

Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals

52%

Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Dětmarovice (draw refunded)

39%

Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dětmarovice at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Polanka nad Odrou away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dětmarovice attack 1.50 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Dětmarovice defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dětmarovice scores more

30%

level

24%

Polanka nad Odrou scores more

47%

Polanka nad Odrou at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Polanka nad Odrou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff