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Polanka nad Odrou vs Bospor Bohumín — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Polanka nad Odrou
Polanka nad Odrou
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bospor Bohumín
Bospor Bohumín
6/12/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 30Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Polanka nad Odrou44%
×Draw24%
Bospor Bohumín32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polanka nad Odrou
1.67
Bospor Bohumín
1.40

Polanka nad Odrou creates 19% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 77 away

creates per match

Polanka nad Odrou
1.78
Bospor Bohumín
1.81

allows per match

Polanka nad Odrou
0.98
Bospor Bohumín
1.55

finishing

Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par
Bospor Bohumín+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polanka nad Odrou ↓

Bospor Bohumín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Polanka nad Odrou or draw
68%
Polanka nad Odrou or Bospor Bohumín
76%
Draw or Bospor Bohumín
56%

Winning margin

Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+
23%
Bospor Bohumín wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals
81%
Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals
50%
Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals
23%
Bospor Bohumín 1+ goals
75%
Bospor Bohumín 2+ goals
41%
Bospor Bohumín 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)
58%
Bospor Bohumín (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polanka nad Odrou at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Bospor Bohumín away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Bospor Bohumín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bospor Bohumín attack 1.81 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Polanka nad Odrou scores more
44%
level
24%
Bospor Bohumín scores more
32%

Polanka nad Odrou at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Polanka nad Odrou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polanka nad Odrou vs Bospor Bohumín

Bospor Bohumín beat Polanka nad Odrou 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on June 12, 2024.

The match was played at Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou in Ostrava.