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Bospor Bohumín vs Polanka nad Odrou — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Bospor Bohumín
Bospor Bohumín
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Polanka nad Odrou
Polanka nad Odrou
11/12/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 15Stadion Bohumín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Bospor Bohumín43%
×Draw24%
Polanka nad Odrou33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bospor Bohumín
1.67
Polanka nad Odrou
1.44

Bospor Bohumín creates 16% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 63 away

creates per match

Bospor Bohumín
2.19
Polanka nad Odrou
1.78

allows per match

Bospor Bohumín
1.09
Polanka nad Odrou
1.16

finishing

Bospor Bohumín+0.00on par
Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bospor Bohumín ↓

Polanka nad Odrou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bospor Bohumín or draw
67%
Bospor Bohumín or Polanka nad Odrou
76%
Draw or Polanka nad Odrou
57%

Winning margin

Bospor Bohumín wins by 2+
22%
Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bospor Bohumín 1+ goals
81%
Bospor Bohumín 2+ goals
50%
Bospor Bohumín 3+ goals
23%
Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals
76%
Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals
42%
Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bospor Bohumín (draw refunded)
56%
Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bospor Bohumín at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Polanka nad Odrou away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bospor Bohumín attack 2.19 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.67

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Bospor Bohumín defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bospor Bohumín scores more
43%
level
24%
Polanka nad Odrou scores more
33%

Bospor Bohumín at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bospor Bohumín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bospor Bohumín vs Polanka nad Odrou

Bospor Bohumín and Polanka nad Odrou drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie F on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Bohumín in Bohumín.