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Polanka nad Odrou vs Bílovec — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Polanka nad Odrou
Polanka nad Odrou
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bílovec
Bílovec
8/24/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 1Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Polanka nad Odrou45%
×Draw24%
Bílovec31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polanka nad Odrou
1.61
Bílovec
1.30

Polanka nad Odrou creates 24% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 71 away

creates per match

Polanka nad Odrou
1.78
Bílovec
1.63

allows per match

Polanka nad Odrou
0.98
Bílovec
1.44

finishing

Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par
Bílovec+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polanka nad Odrou ↓

Bílovec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Polanka nad Odrou or draw
69%
Polanka nad Odrou or Bílovec
76%
Draw or Bílovec
55%

Winning margin

Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+
23%
Bílovec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals
80%
Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals
48%
Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals
22%
Bílovec 1+ goals
73%
Bílovec 2+ goals
37%
Bílovec 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)
59%
Bílovec (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polanka nad Odrou at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Bílovec away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.44 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Bílovec defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

Bílovec attack 1.63 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Polanka nad Odrou scores more
45%
level
24%
Bílovec scores more
31%

Polanka nad Odrou at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Polanka nad Odrou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Polanka nad Odrou 1–1 Bílovec

Polanka nad Odrou and Bílovec drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 24, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou in Ostrava.