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Bílovec vs Polanka nad Odrou — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Bílovec
Bílovec
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Polanka nad Odrou
Polanka nad Odrou
3/10/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 16UMT Bílovec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Bílovec38%
×Draw23%
Polanka nad Odrou39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bílovec
1.65
Polanka nad Odrou
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 63 away

creates per match

Bílovec
2.15
Polanka nad Odrou
1.78

allows per match

Bílovec
1.59
Polanka nad Odrou
1.16

finishing

Bílovec+0.00on par
Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bílovec ↓

Polanka nad Odrou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bílovec or draw
61%
Bílovec or Polanka nad Odrou
77%
Draw or Polanka nad Odrou
62%

Winning margin

Bílovec wins by 2+
19%
Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bílovec 1+ goals
81%
Bílovec 2+ goals
49%
Bílovec 3+ goals
23%
Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals
82%
Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals
50%
Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Bílovec (draw refunded)
49%
Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bílovec at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.59 · 71 matches

Polanka nad Odrou away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bílovec attack 2.15 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.65

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Bílovec defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bílovec scores more
38%
level
23%
Polanka nad Odrou scores more
39%

Polanka nad Odrou at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Polanka nad Odrou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Bílovec 1–4 Polanka nad Odrou

Polanka nad Odrou beat Bílovec 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at UMT Bílovec in Bílovec.