Poland 4–0 Lithuania: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Poland

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lithuania

J. Błaszczykowski 82' (pen)

D. Kownacki 71'

R. Lewandowski 32', 19'

6/12/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1National Stadium Warsaw

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Poland62%

×Draw22%

Lithuania16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PolandExpected goals in this matchLithuania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.81

Poland

1.87

Lithuania

0.81

Poland creates 131% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

1.82

creates per match

0.62

1.00

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Poland

1.82

Lithuania

0.62

allows per match

Poland

1.00

Lithuania

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland+0.00on par

Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland ↓

Lithuania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Poland or draw

84%

Poland or Lithuania

78%

Draw or Lithuania

38%

Winning margin

Poland wins by 2+

37%

Lithuania wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Poland 1+ goals

85%

Poland 2+ goals

56%

Poland 3+ goals

29%

Lithuania 1+ goals

56%

Lithuania 2+ goals

19%

Lithuania 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Poland (draw refunded)

80%

Lithuania (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland attack 1.82 + Lithuania defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.87

Lithuania attack 0.62 + Poland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Poland scores more

62%

level

22%

Lithuania scores more

16%

Poland at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Poland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

R. Lewandowski↳ M. Rybus

26'

J. Lasickas← F. Černych

32'

R. Lewandowski

46'

Jacek Góralski

46'

W. Szczęsny← Ł. Fabiański

46'

Ł. Piszczek← A. Jędrzejczyk

46'

Ł. Teodorczyk← R. Lewandowski

53'

Darvydas Šernas

53'

M. Pazdan← J. Bednarek

58'

V. Slivka← S. Paulius

69'

K. Laukžemis← D. Šernas

70'

J. Błaszczykowski← M. Rybus

71'

D. Kownacki↳ B. Bereszyński

74'

V. Borovskis← R. Baravykas

77'

P. Zieliński← G. Krychowiak

82'

J. BłaszczykowskiPenalty

90'

T. Mikuckis← A. Jankauskas

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PolandLithuania

Overview

61%Possession39%

12Total Shots5

3Corners8

10Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots5

7On Target2

5Off Target3

Passing

61%Possession39%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides4