Lithuania 0–2 Poland: Result & Stats | League #32

Lithuania

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Poland

R. Lewandowski 64'

S. Szymanski 15'

10/12/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 8S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lithuania25%

×Draw23%

Poland51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LithuaniaExpected goals in this matchPoland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.80

Lithuania

1.20

Poland

1.80

Poland creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.40

creates per match

2.00

1.60

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Lithuania

1.40

Poland

2.00

allows per match

Lithuania

1.60

Poland

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lithuania+0.00on par

Poland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania ↓

Poland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lithuania or draw

49%

Lithuania or Poland

77%

Draw or Poland

75%

Winning margin

Lithuania wins by 2+

10%

Poland wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Lithuania 1+ goals

70%

Lithuania 2+ goals

34%

Lithuania 3+ goals

12%

Poland 1+ goals

83%

Poland 2+ goals

54%

Poland 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Lithuania (draw refunded)

33%

Poland (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Poland away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania attack 1.40 + Poland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Poland attack 2.00 + Lithuania defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lithuania scores more

25%

level

23%

Poland scores more

51%

Poland at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Poland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

S. Szymanski

Poland · F

9.3

Match Events

15'

S. Szymanski

44'

Bartosz Slisz

64'

R. Lewandowski↳ S. Szymanski

66'

M. Vorobjovas← G. Sirgedas

66'

T. Kalinauskas← P. Golubickas

73'

E. Jankauskas← F. Cernych

77'

Vykintas Slivka

77'

Przemysław Wiśniewski

78'

Edvinas Girdvainis

82'

K. Swiderski← S. Szymanski

83'

J. Ziolkowski← P. Wisniewski

85'

G. Paulauskas← E. Girdvainis

85'

N. Petkevicius← V. Slivka

90'

B. Kapustka← B. Slisz

90+4'

K. Grosicki← J. Kaminski

90'

P. Wszolek← M. Cash

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LithuaniaPoland

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots12

0.39Expected Goals (xG)1.28

4Corners8

21Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots12

1On Target6

4Off Target3

2Blocked3

4Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

368Total Passes395

285Accurate Passes316

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1