Poland 2–0 FYR Macedonia: Result & Stats

Poland

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FYR Macedonia

A. Milik 80'

P. Frankowski 74'

10/13/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 8Stadion Narodowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Poland48%

×Draw26%

FYR Macedonia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PolandExpected goals in this matchFYR Macedonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.04

Poland

1.50

FYR Macedonia

1.04

Poland creates 44% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.44

creates per match

0.86

1.22

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Poland

1.44

FYR Macedonia

0.86

allows per match

Poland

1.22

FYR Macedonia

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland+0.00on par

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland ↓

FYR Macedonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Poland or draw

74%

Poland or FYR Macedonia

74%

Draw or FYR Macedonia

52%

Winning margin

Poland wins by 2+

24%

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Poland 1+ goals

78%

Poland 2+ goals

44%

Poland 3+ goals

19%

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals

65%

FYR Macedonia 2+ goals

28%

FYR Macedonia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Poland (draw refunded)

65%

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

FYR Macedonia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland attack 1.44 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

FYR Macedonia attack 0.86 + Poland defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Poland scores more

48%

level

26%

FYR Macedonia scores more

26%

Poland at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Poland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Lewandowski

Poland · F

7.9

Match Events

13'

19'

33'

35'

39'

62'

66'

67'

68'

A. Milik← S. Szymański

73'

P. Frankowski← K. Grosicki

73'

A. Trajkovski← I. Nestorovski

74'

P. Frankowski↳ R. Lewandowski

80'

Visar Musliu

80'

A. Milik↳ R. Lewandowski

82'

M. Radeski← S. Ristovski

88'

G. Stoilov← B. Nikolov

90+2'

K. Piątek← P. Zieliński

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PolandFYR

Overview

63%Possession37%

20Total Shots7

3Corners2

19Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots7

4On Target2

11Off Target3

5Blocked2

10Inside Box3

10Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

551Total Passes314

478Accurate Passes236

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls12

3Yellow Cards6

3Offsides5