FYR Macedonia 0–1 Poland: Result & Stats

FYR Macedonia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Poland

K. Piątek 47'

6/7/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 3Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FYR Macedonia29%

×Draw26%

Poland45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FYR MacedoniaExpected goals in this matchPoland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.44

FYR Macedonia

1.09

Poland

1.44

Poland creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.29

creates per match

1.30

1.57

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

FYR Macedonia

1.29

Poland

1.30

allows per match

FYR Macedonia

1.57

Poland

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Poland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FYR Macedonia ↓

Poland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FYR Macedonia or draw

55%

FYR Macedonia or Poland

74%

Draw or Poland

71%

Winning margin

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+

11%

Poland wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals

66%

FYR Macedonia 2+ goals

30%

FYR Macedonia 3+ goals

10%

Poland 1+ goals

76%

Poland 2+ goals

42%

Poland 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)

39%

Poland (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FYR Macedonia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Poland away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FYR Macedonia attack 1.29 + Poland defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.09

Poland attack 1.30 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FYR Macedonia scores more

29%

level

26%

Poland scores more

45%

Poland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Poland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Bardhi

FYR Macedonia · M

7.4

Match Events

28'

Kamil Glik

41'

Jan Bednarek

46'

K. Piątek← P. Frankowski

47'

K. Piątek

62'

A. Trajkovski← B. Nikolov

66'

Visar Musliu

70'

M. Rybus← K. Grosicki

76'

A. Ademi← S. Ristovski

85'

85'

85'

86'

90'

J. Góralski← M. Klich

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FYRPoland

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots6

1Corners5

17Fouls25

Shots

11Total Shots6

3On Target1

5Off Target4

3Blocked1

6Inside Box4

5Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

347Total Passes388

268Accurate Passes308

77%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls25

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards–

3Offsides0