Poland U19 4–0 Malta U19: Result & Stats

Poland U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Malta U19

P. Starzyński 90+3'

A. Buksa 81' (pen)

D. Hoyo-Kowalski 37'

A. Bukowski 20'

10/9/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Poland U1972%

×Draw17%

Malta U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland U19Expected goals in this matchMalta U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

0.85

Poland U19

2.45

Malta U19

0.85

Poland U19 creates 188% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

0.90

0.81

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Poland U19

2.00

Malta U19

0.90

allows per match

Poland U19

0.81

Malta U19

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland U19+0.00on par

Malta U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U19 ↓

Malta U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Poland U19 or draw

89%

Poland U19 or Malta U19

83%

Draw or Malta U19

28%

Winning margin

Poland U19 wins by 2+

50%

Malta U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Poland U19 1+ goals

91%

Poland U19 2+ goals

70%

Poland U19 3+ goals

44%

Malta U19 1+ goals

57%

Malta U19 2+ goals

21%

Malta U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Malta U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Malta U19 away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U19 attack 2.00 + Malta U19 defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.45

Malta U19 attack 0.90 + Poland U19 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Poland U19 scores more

72%

level

17%

Malta U19 scores more

11%

Poland U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

A. Bukowski

37'

D. Hoyo-Kowalski

46'

M. Lipp← J. Bieroński

46'

M. Łęgowski← K. Urbański

56'

P. Starzyński← M. Fornalczyk

59'

J. Micallef← J. Vassallo

59'

A. Spiteri← S. Attard

65'

D. Marczuk← F. Borowski

67'

B. Borg← N. Cross

67'

J. Crossey← N. Sultana

80'

D. Mifsud← N. Agius

81'

A. BuksaPenalty

85'

S. Włodarczyk← A. Buksa

90+3'

P. Starzyński

Poland

Malta

1

4

2

3

8

▼

Vassallo

6

▼

Agius

13

Gambin

14

▼

Attard

17

▼

Cross

7

▼

Sultana

10

Zammit

1

Ojrzyński

3

⚽

Hoyo-Kowa

2

Mosór

18

▼

Borowski

13

Palacz

5

▼

Bieroński

10

▼

Urbański

11

▼

Fornalczy

14

⚽

Bukowski

16

Neugebaue

9

⚽

▼

Buksa

Manager: M. Rumak

46'▲M. Lipp←▼J. Bieroński

46'▲M. Łęgowski←▼K. Urbański

56'▲P. Starzyński←▼M. Fornalczyk

65'▲D. Marczuk←▼F. Borowski

85'▲S. Włodarczyk←▼A. Buksa

Poland U19 substitutes

15Lipp6Łęgowski8Starzyński7Marczuk20Włodarczyk4Kisiel17Błachewicz19Sukiennicki12Dziekoński

Manager: A. Tedesco

59'▲J. Micallef←▼J. Vassallo

59'▲A. Spiteri←▼S. Attard

67'▲B. Borg←▼N. Cross

67'▲J. Crossey←▼N. Sultana

80'▲D. Mifsud←▼N. Agius

Malta U19 substitutes

18Micallef19Spiteri11Borg20Crossey16Mifsud12Saliba5Decesare15Cachia

Match Recap: Poland U19 vs Malta U19

Poland U19 beat Malta U19 4-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 9, 2021.

Goals: A. Bukowski (20'), D. Hoyo-Kowalski (37'), A. Buksa (81' pen), P. Starzyński (90+3').

The match was played at Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo in Almería.

Poland U19 vs Malta U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Poland U19 vs Malta U19