Malta U19 0–6 Poland U19: Result & Stats

Malta U19

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Poland U19

K. Nowakowski 85'

A. Rybak 82'

D. Mikołajewski 62', 45', 30'

I. Orlikowski 59'

10/9/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Stadion Miejski w Mielcu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Malta U1913%

×Draw20%

Poland U1967%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malta U19Expected goals in this matchPoland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

2.08

Malta U19

0.79

Poland U19

2.08

Poland U19 creates 163% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

0.40

creates per match

1.36

2.80

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Malta U19

0.40

Poland U19

1.36

allows per match

Malta U19

2.80

Poland U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malta U19+0.00on par

Poland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta U19 ↓

Poland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–39%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Malta U19 or draw

33%

Malta U19 or Poland U19

80%

Draw or Poland U19

87%

Winning margin

Malta U19 wins by 2+

4%

Poland U19 wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Malta U19 1+ goals

55%

Malta U19 2+ goals

19%

Malta U19 3+ goals

5%

Poland U19 1+ goals

87%

Poland U19 2+ goals

61%

Poland U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Malta U19 (draw refunded)

16%

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta U19 at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Poland U19 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta U19 attack 0.40 + Poland U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.79

Poland U19 attack 1.36 + Malta U19 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Malta U19 scores more

13%

level

20%

Poland U19 scores more

67%

Poland U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

D. Mikołajewski

35'

A. Zammit

45'

D. Mikołajewski

46'

P. Ohaka← K. Hili

46'

T. Melillo← B. Cassar

46'

K. Kolanko← F. Rózga

59'

I. Orlikowski

62'

D. Mikołajewski

64'

K. Ewurum← K. Bartolo

67'

A. Rybak← J. Faberski

67'

K. Potulski← M. Gurgul

67'

P. Paryzek← D. Mikołajewski

69'

L. Okeke

73'

L. Delicata← L. Okeke

75'

K. Nowakowski← E. Grzywacz

82'

T. Eviparker← N. Agius

82'

A. Rybak

85'

K. Nowakowski

Malta

Poland

22

Piekutows

4

⚽

Orlikowsk

2

Szala

5

▼

Gurgul

16

Kurowski

20

▼

Grzywacz

19

▼

Faberski

8

Borys

6

Sznaucner

7

▼

Rózga

10

⚽3

▼

Mikołajew

12

Sissons

2

Briffa

4

▼

6

16

11

14

8

▼

Cassar

13

▼

Hili

7

▼

Agius

19

▼

Bartolo

Manager: P. Gatt

46'▲P. Ohaka←▼K. Hili

46'▲T. Melillo←▼B. Cassar

64'▲K. Ewurum←▼K. Bartolo

73'▲L. Delicata←▼L. Okeke

82'▲T. Eviparker←▼N. Agius

Malta U19 substitutes

20Ohaka15Melillo9Ewurum10Delicata18Eviparker17Sammut1Frendo3Carabott

Manager: W. Kobeszko

46'▲K. Kolanko←▼F. Rózga

67'▲A. Rybak←▼J. Faberski

67'▲K. Potulski←▼M. Gurgul

67'▲P. Paryzek←▼D. Mikołajewski

75'▲K. Nowakowski←▼E. Grzywacz

Poland U19 substitutes

11Kolanko17Rybak14Potulski9Paryzek15Nowakowski1Holewiński18Dorożko3Krzyżanowski21Kądziołka

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Malta U19 0–6 Poland U19

Poland U19 beat Malta U19 6-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 9, 2024.

Goals: D. Mikołajewski (30', 45', 62'), I. Orlikowski (59'), A. Rybak (82'), K. Nowakowski (85').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Mielec.

Malta U19 vs Poland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Malta U19 0–6 Poland U19