Poland U19 3–0 Kazakhstan U19: Result & Stats

Poland U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kazakhstan U19

K. Śmiglewski 59', 45+1'

M. Dziuba 24'

10/14/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Poland U1972%

×Draw17%

Kazakhstan U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland U19Expected goals in this matchKazakhstan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

0.83

Poland U19

2.43

Kazakhstan U19

0.83

Poland U19 creates 193% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

0.86

0.81

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Poland U19

2.00

Kazakhstan U19

0.86

allows per match

Poland U19

0.81

Kazakhstan U19

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland U19+0.00on par

Kazakhstan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U19 ↓

Kazakhstan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Poland U19 or draw

89%

Poland U19 or Kazakhstan U19

83%

Draw or Kazakhstan U19

28%

Winning margin

Poland U19 wins by 2+

50%

Kazakhstan U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Poland U19 1+ goals

91%

Poland U19 2+ goals

69%

Poland U19 3+ goals

43%

Kazakhstan U19 1+ goals

56%

Kazakhstan U19 2+ goals

20%

Kazakhstan U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Kazakhstan U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Kazakhstan U19 away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U19 attack 2.00 + Kazakhstan U19 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.43

Kazakhstan U19 attack 0.86 + Poland U19 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Poland U19 scores more

72%

level

17%

Kazakhstan U19 scores more

11%

Poland U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

37'

39'

45+1'

46'

B. Abdullayev← A. Litosh

46'

I. Abil← M. Yensebayev

47'

A. Bizhan

54'

M. Dziuba

59'

K. Śmiglewski

60'

K. Terlecki← M. Dziuba

60'

M. Rosiak← M. Kalemba

60'

S. Bartlewicz← D. Drachal

67'

M. Kowalski← J. Nsangou

67'

d. Umirzak← G. Valgushev

73'

A. Gabiden← z. Mukhametkhanov

78'

D. Tkacz← K. Śmiglewski

78'

D. Serikuly← T. Agimanov

81'

B. Abdullayev

Poland

Kazakhstan

12

6

13

3

2

7

▼

Agimanov

23

▼

Mukhametk

21

▼

Valgushev

15

Nurymbet

9

▼

Litosh

20

▼

12

4

5

3

8

7

▼

Kalemba

16

▼

Nsangou

15

⚽

▼

Dziuba

10

▼

Drachal

2

Barczak

21

⚽2

▼

Śmiglewsk

Manager: W. Kobeszko

60'▲K. Terlecki←▼M. Dziuba

60'▲M. Rosiak←▼M. Kalemba

60'▲S. Bartlewicz←▼D. Drachal

67'▲M. Kowalski←▼J. Nsangou

78'▲D. Tkacz←▼K. Śmiglewski

Poland U19 substitutes

17Terlecki6Rosiak20Bartlewicz9Kowalski11Tkacz1Mikułko19Luberecki18Ziółkowski23Guercio

Manager: A. Kuznetsov

46'▲B. Abdullayev←▼A. Litosh

46'▲I. Abil←▼M. Yensebayev

67'▲d. Umirzak←▼G. Valgushev

73'▲A. Gabiden←▼z. Mukhametkhanov

78'▲D. Serikuly←▼T. Agimanov

Kazakhstan U19 substitutes

17Abdullayev22Abil10Umirzak18Gabiden19Serikuly1Aliakbar5Amirzhan14Zhankhaev4Sakenov

Match Recap: Poland U19 vs Kazakhstan U19

Poland U19 beat Kazakhstan U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 14, 2023.

Goals: M. Dziuba (24'), K. Śmiglewski (45+1', 59').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Inowrocław.

Poland U19 vs Kazakhstan U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Poland U19 vs Kazakhstan U19