Poland U19 4–0 Kazakhstan U19: Result & Stats

Poland U19

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kazakhstan U19

J. Kiwior 90+1' (pen)

M. Bogusz 71'

M. Żurawski 45'

M. Nawrocki 15'

11/17/2018

UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 6Stangmore Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Poland U1966%

×Draw18%

Kazakhstan U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Poland U19Expected goals in this matchKazakhstan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.07

Poland U19

2.40

Kazakhstan U19

1.07

Poland U19 creates 124% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.80

creates per match

0.75

1.40

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Poland U19

1.80

Kazakhstan U19

0.75

allows per match

Poland U19

1.40

Kazakhstan U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland U19+0.00on par

Kazakhstan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U19 ↓

Kazakhstan U19 →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Poland U19 or draw

85%

Poland U19 or Kazakhstan U19

82%

Draw or Kazakhstan U19

34%

Winning margin

Poland U19 wins by 2+

44%

Kazakhstan U19 wins by 2+

Team goals

Poland U19 1+ goals

91%

Poland U19 2+ goals

69%

Poland U19 3+ goals

42%

Kazakhstan U19 1+ goals

66%

Kazakhstan U19 2+ goals

29%

Kazakhstan U19 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Kazakhstan U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Poland U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Kazakhstan U19 away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Poland U19 attack 1.80 + Kazakhstan U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.40

Kazakhstan U19 attack 0.75 + Poland U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Poland U19 scores more

66%

level

18%

Kazakhstan U19 scores more

15%

Poland U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

M. Nawrocki

45'

M. Żurawski

71'

M. Bogusz

90+1'

J. KiwiorPenalty

Poland

Kazakhstan

⚽

⚽

⚽

⚽

Manager: D. Gęsior

Poland U19 substitutes

MosakowskiKubicaPiątkowskiTabiśWełniakKochalskiPieczekSkóraśPoręba

Manager: A. Kuznetsov

Kazakhstan U19 substitutes

KenesovBachekBitussupovZhomartSizovSagnayevNurseitovSaenko

UEFA U19 Championship: Poland U19 4–0 Kazakhstan U19

Poland U19 beat Kazakhstan U19 4-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on November 17, 2018.

Goals: M. Nawrocki (15'), M. Żurawski (45'), M. Bogusz (71'), J. Kiwior (90+1' pen).

The match was played at Stangmore Park in Dungannon.

Poland U19 vs Kazakhstan U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship: Poland U19 4–0 Kazakhstan U19