Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Polaban Nymburk vs Ostrá — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Ostrá
Ostrá
3/8/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 16Fotbalový ?tadión Polaban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Polaban Nymburk21%
×Draw19%
Ostrá60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polaban Nymburk
1.35
Ostrá
2.40

Ostrá creates 78% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Polaban Nymburk
1.20
Ostrá
1.50

allows per match

Polaban Nymburk
3.30
Ostrá
1.50

finishing

Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par
Ostrá+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polaban Nymburk ↓

Ostrá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Polaban Nymburk or draw
40%
Polaban Nymburk or Ostrá
81%
Draw or Ostrá
79%

Winning margin

Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
9%
Ostrá wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
74%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
39%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
15%
Ostrá 1+ goals
91%
Ostrá 2+ goals
69%
Ostrá 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
26%
Ostrá (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polaban Nymburk at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

Ostrá away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polaban Nymburk attack 1.20 + Ostrá defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ostrá attack 1.50 + Polaban Nymburk defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Polaban Nymburk scores more
21%
level
19%
Ostrá scores more
60%

Ostrá at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ostrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polaban Nymburk vs Ostrá

Ostrá beat Polaban Nymburk 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Fotbalový ?tadión Polaban.