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Ostrá vs Polaban Nymburk — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Ostrá
Ostrá
FT
0 – 1
Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
8/10/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 1Hřiště v Hákově (Ostrá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ostrá72%
×Draw17%
Polaban Nymburk11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrá
2.33
Polaban Nymburk
0.79

Ostrá creates 195% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Ostrá
1.75
Polaban Nymburk
0.33

allows per match

Ostrá
1.25
Polaban Nymburk
2.92

finishing

Ostrá+0.00on par
Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrá ↓

Polaban Nymburk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ostrá or draw
89%
Ostrá or Polaban Nymburk
83%
Draw or Polaban Nymburk
28%

Winning margin

Ostrá wins by 2+
48%
Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ostrá 1+ goals
90%
Ostrá 2+ goals
67%
Ostrá 3+ goals
41%
Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
55%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
19%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ostrá (draw refunded)
87%
Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrá at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Polaban Nymburk away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrá attack 1.75 + Polaban Nymburk defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.33

Polaban Nymburk attack 0.33 + Ostrá defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Ostrá scores more
72%
level
17%
Polaban Nymburk scores more
11%

Ostrá at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Ostrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Ostrá 0–1 Polaban Nymburk

Polaban Nymburk beat Ostrá 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště v Hákově (Ostrá).