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Pokrok Krompachy vs Mladosť Kalša — 3. liga - East 2020

Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
FT
3 – 3
Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
8/14/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 4Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Pokrok Krompachy40%
×Draw21%
Mladosť Kalša39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pokrok Krompachy
2.04
Mladosť Kalša
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Pokrok Krompachy
1.23
Mladosť Kalša
1.82

allows per match

Pokrok Krompachy
2.23
Mladosť Kalša
2.86

finishing

Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par
Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pokrok Krompachy ↓

Mladosť Kalša →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Pokrok Krompachy or draw
61%
Pokrok Krompachy or Mladosť Kalša
79%
Draw or Mladosť Kalša
60%

Winning margin

Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
22%
Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
87%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
60%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
33%
Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
87%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
60%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
50%
Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pokrok Krompachy at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

Mladosť Kalša away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pokrok Krompachy attack 1.23 + Mladosť Kalša defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.04

Mladosť Kalša attack 1.82 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pokrok Krompachy scores more
40%
level
21%
Mladosť Kalša scores more
39%

Pokrok Krompachy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pokrok Krompachy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pokrok Krompachy vs Mladosť Kalša

Pokrok Krompachy and Mladosť Kalša drew 3-3 in 3. liga - East on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy in Krompachy.