Mladosť Kalša 1–2 Pokrok Krompachy: Result & Stats

Mladosť Kalša

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Pokrok Krompachy

4/3/2022

3. liga - East · East - 19Sport Club Mladosť Kalša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mladosť Kalša73%

×Draw15%

Pokrok Krompachy13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladosť KalšaExpected goals in this matchPokrok Krompachy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.06

1.24

Mladosť Kalša

3.06

Pokrok Krompachy

1.24

Mladosť Kalša creates 147% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

2.48

creates per match

0.61

1.87

allows per match

3.65

creates per match

Mladosť Kalša

2.48

Pokrok Krompachy

0.61

allows per match

Mladosť Kalša

1.87

Pokrok Krompachy

3.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladosť Kalša ↓

Pokrok Krompachy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Mladosť Kalša or draw

87%

Mladosť Kalša or Pokrok Krompachy

85%

Draw or Pokrok Krompachy

27%

Winning margin

Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+

53%

Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals

95%

Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals

80%

Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals

57%

Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals

71%

Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals

35%

Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)

85%

Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladosť Kalša at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Pokrok Krompachy away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladosť Kalša attack 2.48 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 3.06

Pokrok Krompachy attack 0.61 + Mladosť Kalša defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Mladosť Kalša scores more

73%

level

15%

Pokrok Krompachy scores more

13%

Mladosť Kalša at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Mladosť Kalša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff