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Pokrok Krompachy vs Humenné — 3. liga - East 2020

Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Humenné
Humenné
6/13/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 15Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pokrok Krompachy12%
×Draw16%
Humenné72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pokrok Krompachy
0.98
Humenné
2.62

Humenné creates 167% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pokrok Krompachy
1.23
Humenné
3.00

allows per match

Pokrok Krompachy
2.23
Humenné
0.74

finishing

Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par
Humenné+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pokrok Krompachy ↓

Humenné →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Pokrok Krompachy or draw
28%
Pokrok Krompachy or Humenné
84%
Draw or Humenné
88%

Winning margin

Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
4%
Humenné wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
62%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
26%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
8%
Humenné 1+ goals
93%
Humenné 2+ goals
73%
Humenné 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
14%
Humenné (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pokrok Krompachy at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

Humenné away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pokrok Krompachy attack 1.23 + Humenné defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.98

Humenné attack 3.00 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Pokrok Krompachy scores more
12%
level
16%
Humenné scores more
72%

Humenné at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Humenné will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Pokrok Krompachy 2–4 Humenné

Humenné beat Pokrok Krompachy 4-2 in 3. liga - East on June 13, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy in Krompachy.