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Humenné vs Pokrok Krompachy — 3. liga - East 2020

Humenné
Humenné
CANC
15:00
Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
6/20/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Humenné89%
×Draw7%
Pokrok Krompachy3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humenné
3.73
Pokrok Krompachy
0.65

Humenné creates 474% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Humenné
3.82
Pokrok Krompachy
0.61

allows per match

Humenné
0.68
Pokrok Krompachy
3.65

finishing

Humenné+0.00on par
Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humenné ↓

Pokrok Krompachy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Humenné or draw
97%
Humenné or Pokrok Krompachy
93%
Draw or Pokrok Krompachy
11%

Winning margin

Humenné wins by 2+
75%
Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Humenné 1+ goals
97%
Humenné 2+ goals
88%
Humenné 3+ goals
69%
Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
48%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
14%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Humenné (draw refunded)
97%
Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humenné at home — creates 3.82, concedes 0.68 · 22 matches

Pokrok Krompachy away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humenné attack 3.82 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 3.73

Pokrok Krompachy attack 0.61 + Humenné defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Humenné scores more
89%
level
7%
Pokrok Krompachy scores more
3%

Humenné at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Humenné will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Humenné face Pokrok Krompachy (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Humenné hosting Pokrok Krompachy. Match starts June 20, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.