Pokrok Krompachy vs Družstevník Plavnica

Pokrok Krompachy

CANC

13:30

Družstevník Plavnica

4/11/2021

3. liga - East · East - 20Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pokrok Krompachy40%

×Draw22%

Družstevník Plavnica37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pokrok KrompachyExpected goals in this matchDružstevník Plavnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.70

Pokrok Krompachy

1.78

Družstevník Plavnica

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 6 away

1.23

creates per match

1.17

2.23

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Pokrok Krompachy

1.23

Družstevník Plavnica

1.17

allows per match

Pokrok Krompachy

2.23

Družstevník Plavnica

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pokrok Krompachy ↓

Družstevník Plavnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Pokrok Krompachy or draw

63%

Pokrok Krompachy or Družstevník Plavnica

78%

Draw or Družstevník Plavnica

60%

Winning margin

Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+

21%

Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals

83%

Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals

53%

Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals

26%

Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals

82%

Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals

51%

Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)

52%

Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pokrok Krompachy at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

Družstevník Plavnica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pokrok Krompachy attack 1.23 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.78

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.17 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pokrok Krompachy scores more

40%

level

22%

Družstevník Plavnica scores more

37%

Pokrok Krompachy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pokrok Krompachy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff