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Družstevník Plavnica vs Pokrok Krompachy — 3. liga - East 2020

Družstevník Plavnica
Družstevník Plavnica
FT
2 – 0
Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
8/23/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 5Futbalový štadión FK Družstevník Plavnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Družstevník Plavnica78%
×Draw14%
Pokrok Krompachy8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Družstevník Plavnica
2.76
Pokrok Krompachy
0.80

Družstevník Plavnica creates 245% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

creates per match

Družstevník Plavnica
1.88
Pokrok Krompachy
0.61

allows per match

Družstevník Plavnica
1.00
Pokrok Krompachy
3.65

finishing

Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par
Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Družstevník Plavnica ↓

Pokrok Krompachy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Družstevník Plavnica or draw
92%
Družstevník Plavnica or Pokrok Krompachy
86%
Draw or Pokrok Krompachy
22%

Winning margin

Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+
57%
Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals
94%
Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals
76%
Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals
51%
Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
55%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
19%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)
90%
Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Družstevník Plavnica at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Pokrok Krompachy away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.88 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.76

Pokrok Krompachy attack 0.61 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Družstevník Plavnica scores more
78%
level
14%
Pokrok Krompachy scores more
8%

Družstevník Plavnica at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Družstevník Plavnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Družstevník Plavnica 2–0 Pokrok Krompachy

Družstevník Plavnica beat Pokrok Krompachy 2-0 in 3. liga - East on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FK Družstevník Plavnica in Plavnica.