Point Fortin 0–6 Central: Result & Stats

Point Fortin

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Central

Unknown 89', 71', 53', 50'

M. Mieres 24'

T. Charles 17'

5/10/2025

League #591 · Round 19Arima Velodrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Point Fortin14%

×Draw16%

Central70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Point FortinExpected goals in this matchCentral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

2.83

Point Fortin

1.20

Central

2.83

Central creates 136% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

0.89

creates per match

3.00

2.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Point Fortin

0.89

Central

3.00

allows per match

Point Fortin

2.67

Central

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Point Fortin+0.00on par

Central+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Point Fortin ↓

Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Point Fortin or draw

30%

Point Fortin or Central

84%

Draw or Central

86%

Winning margin

Point Fortin wins by 2+

5%

Central wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Point Fortin 1+ goals

70%

Point Fortin 2+ goals

34%

Point Fortin 3+ goals

12%

Central 1+ goals

94%

Central 2+ goals

77%

Central 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Point Fortin (draw refunded)

16%

Central (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Point Fortin at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

Central away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Point Fortin attack 0.89 + Central defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Central attack 3.00 + Point Fortin defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Point Fortin scores more

14%

level

16%

Central scores more

70%

Central at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

T. Charles

24'

M. Mieres

50'

53'

71'

89'

Point

Central

Manager: D. Furlonge

Manager: D. Saunders