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Central vs Point Fortin — League #591 2026

Central
Central
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Point Fortin
Point Fortin
J. Rochford 86'
D. David 60'
D. Douglas 47'
K. Woodley 6' (pen)
1/24/2025League #591League #591 · Round 8La Horquetta Recreation Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Central45%
×Draw21%
Point Fortin34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central
2.01
Point Fortin
1.73

Central creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

creates per match

Central
1.55
Point Fortin
1.27

allows per match

Central
2.18
Point Fortin
2.47

finishing

Central+0.00on par
Point Fortin+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central ↓

Point Fortin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Central or draw
66%
Central or Point Fortin
79%
Draw or Point Fortin
55%

Winning margin

Central wins by 2+
25%
Point Fortin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Central 1+ goals
87%
Central 2+ goals
59%
Central 3+ goals
32%
Point Fortin 1+ goals
82%
Point Fortin 2+ goals
52%
Point Fortin 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Central (draw refunded)
57%
Point Fortin (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

Point Fortin away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central attack 1.55 + Point Fortin defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.01

Point Fortin attack 1.27 + Central defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Central scores more
45%
level
21%
Point Fortin scores more
34%

Central at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
K. WoodleyPenalty
47'
D. Douglas
60'
D. David
86'
J. Rochford
Central
Point
D. Saunders
Manager: D. Saunders
D. Furlonge
Manager: D. Furlonge

League #591: Central 4–0 Point Fortin

Central beat Point Fortin 4-0 in League #591 on January 24, 2025.

Goals: K. Woodley (6' pen), D. Douglas (47'), D. David (60'), J. Rochford (86').

The match was played at La Horquetta Recreation Grounds in Arima.