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Pohronie vs Petržalka — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Pohronie
Pohronie
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Petržalka
Petržalka
1/19/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Pohronie53%
×Draw20%
Petržalka26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pohronie
2.22
Petržalka
1.52

Pohronie creates 46% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Pohronie
2.86
Petržalka
1.75

allows per match

Pohronie
1.29
Petržalka
1.58

finishing

Pohronie+0.00on par
Petržalka+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohronie ↓

Petržalka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Pohronie or draw
74%
Pohronie or Petržalka
80%
Draw or Petržalka
47%

Winning margin

Pohronie wins by 2+
32%
Petržalka wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pohronie 1+ goals
89%
Pohronie 2+ goals
65%
Pohronie 3+ goals
38%
Petržalka 1+ goals
78%
Petržalka 2+ goals
45%
Petržalka 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pohronie (draw refunded)
67%
Petržalka (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohronie at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Petržalka away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohronie attack 2.86 + Petržalka defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.22

Petržalka attack 1.75 + Pohronie defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pohronie scores more
53%
level
20%
Petržalka scores more
26%

Pohronie at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pohronie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Pohronie 0–1 Petržalka

Petržalka beat Pohronie 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 19, 2024.