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Petržalka vs Pohronie — 2. liga 2019

Petržalka
Petržalka
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pohronie
Pohronie
4/5/20262. liga2. liga · Round 23Štadión FC Petržalka 1898

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Petržalka51%
×Draw23%
Pohronie25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petržalka
1.77
Pohronie
1.17

Petržalka creates 51% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 58 away

creates per match

Petržalka
1.82
Pohronie
1.16

allows per match

Petržalka
1.18
Pohronie
1.71

finishing

Petržalka+0.00on par
Pohronie+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petržalka ↓

Pohronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Petržalka or draw
75%
Petržalka or Pohronie
77%
Draw or Pohronie
49%

Winning margin

Petržalka wins by 2+
28%
Pohronie wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Petržalka 1+ goals
83%
Petržalka 2+ goals
53%
Petržalka 3+ goals
26%
Pohronie 1+ goals
69%
Pohronie 2+ goals
33%
Pohronie 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Petržalka (draw refunded)
67%
Pohronie (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petržalka at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.18 · 96 matches

Pohronie away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petržalka attack 1.82 + Pohronie defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

Pohronie attack 1.16 + Petržalka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Petržalka scores more
51%
level
23%
Pohronie scores more
25%

Petržalka at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Petržalka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Petržalka 3–0 Pohronie

Petržalka beat Pohronie 3-0 in 2. liga on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Štadión FC Petržalka 1898 in Bratislava.