Pohronie 2–4 Petržalka: Result & Stats | 2. liga

Pohronie

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Petržalka

11/10/2023

2. liga · Round 16Futbalový štadión Žiar nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Pohronie44%

×Draw24%

Petržalka32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PohronieExpected goals in this matchPetržalka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.33

Pohronie

1.61

Petržalka

1.33

Pohronie creates 21% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 96 away

1.78

creates per match

1.26

1.41

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Pohronie

1.78

Petržalka

1.26

allows per match

Pohronie

1.41

Petržalka

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pohronie+0.00on par

Petržalka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohronie ↓

Petržalka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Pohronie or draw

68%

Pohronie or Petržalka

76%

Draw or Petržalka

56%

Winning margin

Pohronie wins by 2+

22%

Petržalka wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pohronie 1+ goals

80%

Pohronie 2+ goals

48%

Pohronie 3+ goals

22%

Petržalka 1+ goals

74%

Petržalka 2+ goals

38%

Petržalka 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Pohronie (draw refunded)

58%

Petržalka (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohronie at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.41 · 58 matches

Petržalka away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.45 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohronie attack 1.78 + Petržalka defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.61

Petržalka attack 1.26 + Pohronie defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pohronie scores more

44%

level

24%

Petržalka scores more

32%

Pohronie at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pohronie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff