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Pohronie vs Humenné — 2. liga 2019

Pohronie
Pohronie
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Humenné
Humenné
3/1/20242. liga2. liga · Round 18Futbalový štadión Žiar nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Pohronie48%
×Draw25%
Humenné27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pohronie
1.58
Humenné
1.13

Pohronie creates 40% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

creates per match

Pohronie
1.78
Humenné
0.84

allows per match

Pohronie
1.41
Humenné
1.38

finishing

Pohronie+0.00on par
Humenné+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohronie ↓

Humenné →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pohronie or draw
73%
Pohronie or Humenné
75%
Draw or Humenné
52%

Winning margin

Pohronie wins by 2+
25%
Humenné wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pohronie 1+ goals
79%
Pohronie 2+ goals
47%
Pohronie 3+ goals
21%
Humenné 1+ goals
68%
Humenné 2+ goals
31%
Humenné 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pohronie (draw refunded)
64%
Humenné (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohronie at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.41 · 58 matches

Humenné away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohronie attack 1.78 + Humenné defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

Humenné attack 0.84 + Pohronie defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pohronie scores more
48%
level
25%
Humenné scores more
27%

Pohronie at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pohronie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Pohronie 1–2 Humenné

Humenné beat Pohronie 2-1 in 2. liga on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Žiar nad Hronom in Žiar nad Hronom.