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Humenné vs Pohronie — 2. liga 2019

Humenné
Humenné
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pohronie
Pohronie
10/19/20242. liga2. liga · Round 11Chemlonský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Humenné47%
×Draw26%
Pohronie27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humenné
1.50
Pohronie
1.06

Humenné creates 42% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

creates per match

Humenné
1.28
Pohronie
1.16

allows per match

Humenné
0.97
Pohronie
1.71

finishing

Humenné+0.00on par
Pohronie+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humenné ↓

Pohronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Humenné or draw
73%
Humenné or Pohronie
74%
Draw or Pohronie
53%

Winning margin

Humenné wins by 2+
24%
Pohronie wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Humenné 1+ goals
78%
Humenné 2+ goals
44%
Humenné 3+ goals
19%
Pohronie 1+ goals
65%
Pohronie 2+ goals
29%
Pohronie 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Humenné (draw refunded)
64%
Pohronie (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humenné at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

Pohronie away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humenné attack 1.28 + Pohronie defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pohronie attack 1.16 + Humenné defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Humenné scores more
47%
level
26%
Pohronie scores more
27%

Humenné at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Humenné will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Humenné vs Pohronie

Humenné beat Pohronie 1-0 in 2. liga on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Chemlonský štadión in Humenné.