Pohang Steelers 1–1 Nagoya Grampus: Result & Stats

Pohang Steelers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nagoya Grampus

7/7/2021

AFC Champions League · Ranking of second-placed teams - 6Rajamangala National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pohang Steelers47%

×Draw25%

Nagoya Grampus29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pohang SteelersExpected goals in this matchNagoya Grampus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.21

Pohang Steelers

1.61

Nagoya Grampus

1.21

Pohang Steelers creates 33% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

2.23

creates per match

1.50

0.92

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Pohang Steelers

2.23

Nagoya Grampus

1.50

allows per match

Pohang Steelers

0.92

Nagoya Grampus

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohang Steelers ↓

Nagoya Grampus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pohang Steelers or draw

71%

Pohang Steelers or Nagoya Grampus

75%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

53%

Winning margin

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

24%

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

80%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

48%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

22%

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

70%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

34%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

62%

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohang Steelers at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohang Steelers attack 2.23 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.50 + Pohang Steelers defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pohang Steelers scores more

47%

level

25%

Nagoya Grampus scores more

29%

Pohang Steelers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pohang Steelers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff