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Nagoya Grampus vs Pohang Steelers — AFC Champions League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pohang Steelers
Pohang Steelers
6/25/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group G - 2Rajamangala National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nagoya Grampus69%
×Draw18%
Pohang Steelers13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
2.32
Pohang Steelers
0.88

Nagoya Grampus creates 164% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
3.00
Pohang Steelers
1.00

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
0.75
Pohang Steelers
1.64

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par
Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Pohang Steelers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
87%
Nagoya Grampus or Pohang Steelers
82%
Draw or Pohang Steelers
31%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
46%
Pohang Steelers wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
90%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
67%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
40%
Pohang Steelers 1+ goals
59%
Pohang Steelers 2+ goals
22%
Pohang Steelers 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
84%
Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Pohang Steelers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 3.00 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.32

Pohang Steelers attack 1.00 + Nagoya Grampus defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
69%
level
18%
Pohang Steelers scores more
13%

Nagoya Grampus at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Nagoya Grampus 3–0 Pohang Steelers

Nagoya Grampus beat Pohang Steelers 3-0 in AFC Champions League on June 25, 2021.

The match was played at Rajamangala National Stadium in Bangkok.