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Pohang Steelers vs Kaya — AFC Cup 2018

Pohang Steelers
Pohang Steelers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kaya
Kaya
10/2/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Pohang Steel Yard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pohang Steelers61%
×Draw23%
Kaya16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pohang Steelers
1.79
Kaya
0.79

Pohang Steelers creates 127% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Pohang Steelers
1.50
Kaya
1.08

allows per match

Pohang Steelers
0.50
Kaya
2.08

finishing

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par
Kaya+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohang Steelers ↓

Kaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pohang Steelers or draw
84%
Pohang Steelers or Kaya
77%
Draw or Kaya
39%

Winning margin

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+
35%
Kaya wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals
83%
Pohang Steelers 2+ goals
53%
Pohang Steelers 3+ goals
26%
Kaya 1+ goals
55%
Kaya 2+ goals
19%
Kaya 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)
79%
Kaya (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohang Steelers at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Kaya away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohang Steelers attack 1.50 + Kaya defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kaya attack 1.08 + Pohang Steelers defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pohang Steelers scores more
61%
level
23%
Kaya scores more
16%

Pohang Steelers at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pohang Steelers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Pohang Steelers 2–0 Kaya

Pohang Steelers beat Kaya 2-0 in AFC Cup on October 2, 2025.

The match was played at Pohang Steel Yard in Pohang.