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Kaya vs Pohang Steelers — AFC Cup 2018

Kaya
Kaya
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pohang Steelers
Pohang Steelers
12/11/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kaya31%
×Draw29%
Pohang Steelers40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaya
1.00
Pohang Steelers
1.17

Pohang Steelers creates 17% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kaya
1.25
Pohang Steelers
0.75

allows per match

Kaya
1.58
Pohang Steelers
0.75

finishing

Kaya+0.00on par
Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaya ↓

Pohang Steelers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kaya or draw
60%
Kaya or Pohang Steelers
71%
Draw or Pohang Steelers
69%

Winning margin

Kaya wins by 2+
12%
Pohang Steelers wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kaya 1+ goals
63%
Kaya 2+ goals
26%
Kaya 3+ goals
8%
Pohang Steelers 1+ goals
69%
Pohang Steelers 2+ goals
33%
Pohang Steelers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kaya (draw refunded)
44%
Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaya at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Pohang Steelers away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaya attack 1.25 + Pohang Steelers defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Pohang Steelers attack 0.75 + Kaya defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kaya scores more
31%
level
29%
Pohang Steelers scores more
40%

Pohang Steelers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pohang Steelers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaya vs Pohang Steelers

Pohang Steelers beat Kaya 1-0 in AFC Cup on December 11, 2025.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.