Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors

Pohang Steelers

Preview

10:30

Jeonbuk Motors

7/25/2026

K League 1 · Round 20Pohang Steel Yard

Big match

41%

Jeonbuk Motors

model favours

32%28%41%

73% of Pohang Steelers’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

57%

under 2.5 goals

49%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Pohang Steelers32%

×Draw28%

Jeonbuk Motors41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pohang SteelersExpected goals in this matchJeonbuk Motors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.29

Pohang Steelers

1.11

Jeonbuk Motors

1.29

Jeonbuk Motors creates 16% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 136 away

1.31

creates per match

1.47

1.11

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Pohang Steelers

1.31

Jeonbuk Motors

1.47

allows per match

Pohang Steelers

1.11

Jeonbuk Motors

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohang Steelers ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pohang Steelers or draw

59%

Pohang Steelers or Jeonbuk Motors

72%

Draw or Jeonbuk Motors

68%

Winning margin

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

13%

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

67%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

30%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

10%

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

72%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

37%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

44%

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohang Steelers at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 139 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.91 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohang Steelers attack 1.31 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.11

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.47 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pohang Steelers scores more

32%

level

28%

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

41%

Jeonbuk Motors at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 27% of Pohang Steelers’s matches
Style contrast — Pohang Steelers play Defensively solid, Jeonbuk Motors Possession-dominant
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
Jeonbuk Motors fall short of their xG (1.5 vs 2.5 expected)
31% of Jeonbuk Motors’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Pohang Steelers

Defensively solid

Jeonbuk Motors

Possession-dominant

49%Possession55%

81%Pass accuracy84%

15.3Shots12.7

1.57xGBiggest gap2.50

Pohang SteelersJeonbuk Motors

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2

Pohang Steelers

4

Draws

4

Jeonbuk Motors

Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 70%

2–30–03–12–32–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Steelers

LWWLW

Motors

DLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff