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Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors — K League 1 2026

Pohang Steelers
Pohang Steelers
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
7/19/2025K League 1K League 1 · Round 22Pohang Steel Yard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 154+ matches

Pohang Steelers32%
×Draw27%
Jeonbuk Motors41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pohang Steelers
1.14
Jeonbuk Motors
1.33

Jeonbuk Motors creates 17% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 154 away

creates per match

Pohang Steelers
1.33
Jeonbuk Motors
1.55

allows per match

Pohang Steelers
1.10
Jeonbuk Motors
0.94

finishing

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par
Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohang Steelers ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pohang Steelers or draw
59%
Pohang Steelers or Jeonbuk Motors
73%
Draw or Jeonbuk Motors
68%

Winning margin

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+
13%
Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals
68%
Pohang Steelers 2+ goals
32%
Pohang Steelers 3+ goals
11%
Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
74%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
38%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)
44%
Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohang Steelers at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 156 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.94 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohang Steelers attack 1.33 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.55 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pohang Steelers scores more
32%
level
27%
Jeonbuk Motors scores more
41%

Jeonbuk Motors at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors

Jeonbuk Motors beat Pohang Steelers 3-2 in K League 1 on July 19, 2025.

The match was played at Pohang Steel Yard in Pohang.