Jeonbuk Motors 2–2 Pohang Steelers: Result & Stats

Jeonbuk Motors

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Pohang Steelers

3/16/2025

K League 1 · Round 5Jeonju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 154+ matches

Jeonbuk Motors45%

×Draw26%

Pohang Steelers29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeonbuk MotorsExpected goals in this matchPohang Steelers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.15

Jeonbuk Motors

1.49

Pohang Steelers

1.15

Jeonbuk Motors creates 30% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 154 away

1.70

creates per match

1.32

0.98

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Jeonbuk Motors

1.70

Pohang Steelers

1.32

allows per match

Jeonbuk Motors

0.98

Pohang Steelers

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonbuk Motors ↓

Pohang Steelers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jeonbuk Motors or draw

71%

Jeonbuk Motors or Pohang Steelers

74%

Draw or Pohang Steelers

55%

Winning margin

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

22%

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

77%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

44%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

19%

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

68%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

32%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

61%

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonbuk Motors at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.98 · 158 matches

Pohang Steelers away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.70 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.49

Pohang Steelers attack 1.32 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

45%

level

26%

Pohang Steelers scores more

29%

Jeonbuk Motors at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff