Pohang Steelers 4–2 Jeonbuk Motors: Result & Stats

Pohang Steelers

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Jeonbuk Motors

11/4/2023

FA Cup · FinalSteelyard Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pohang Steelers51%

×Draw21%

Jeonbuk Motors28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pohang SteelersExpected goals in this matchJeonbuk Motors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.50

Pohang Steelers

2.08

Jeonbuk Motors

1.50

Pohang Steelers creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

2.67

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Pohang Steelers

2.67

Jeonbuk Motors

2.00

allows per match

Pohang Steelers

1.00

Jeonbuk Motors

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohang Steelers ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Pohang Steelers or draw

72%

Pohang Steelers or Jeonbuk Motors

79%

Draw or Jeonbuk Motors

49%

Winning margin

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

30%

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

87%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

61%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

34%

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

78%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

44%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

65%

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohang Steelers at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohang Steelers attack 2.67 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Jeonbuk Motors attack 2.00 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pohang Steelers scores more

51%

level

21%

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

28%

Pohang Steelers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pohang Steelers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff