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Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC — K League 1 2026

Pohang Steelers
Pohang Steelers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Daegu FC
Daegu FC
3/1/2025K League 1K League 1 · Round 3Pohang Steel Yard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Pohang Steelers43%
×Draw27%
Daegu FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pohang Steelers
1.40
Daegu FC
1.13

Pohang Steelers creates 24% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 149 away

creates per match

Pohang Steelers
1.33
Daegu FC
1.16

allows per match

Pohang Steelers
1.10
Daegu FC
1.46

finishing

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par
Daegu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohang Steelers ↓

Daegu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pohang Steelers or draw
70%
Pohang Steelers or Daegu FC
73%
Draw or Daegu FC
57%

Winning margin

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+
20%
Daegu FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals
75%
Pohang Steelers 2+ goals
41%
Pohang Steelers 3+ goals
17%
Daegu FC 1+ goals
68%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
31%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)
59%
Daegu FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohang Steelers at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 156 matches

Daegu FC away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.46 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohang Steelers attack 1.33 + Daegu FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Daegu FC attack 1.16 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pohang Steelers scores more
43%
level
27%
Daegu FC scores more
30%

Pohang Steelers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pohang Steelers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Pohang Steelers 0–0 Daegu FC

Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC drew 0-0 in K League 1 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Pohang Steel Yard in Pohang.