Daegu FC 3–3 Pohang Steelers: Result & Stats

Daegu FC

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Pohang Steelers

7/6/2024

K League 1 · Round 21DGB Daegu Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Daegu FC37%

×Draw26%

Pohang Steelers37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daegu FCExpected goals in this matchPohang Steelers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

Daegu FC

1.31

Pohang Steelers

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 145 home / 154 away

1.33

creates per match

1.32

1.29

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Daegu FC

1.33

Pohang Steelers

1.32

allows per match

Daegu FC

1.29

Pohang Steelers

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daegu FC+0.00on par

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daegu FC ↓

Pohang Steelers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Daegu FC or draw

63%

Daegu FC or Pohang Steelers

74%

Draw or Pohang Steelers

63%

Winning margin

Daegu FC wins by 2+

16%

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Daegu FC 1+ goals

73%

Daegu FC 2+ goals

38%

Daegu FC 3+ goals

14%

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

73%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

38%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Daegu FC (draw refunded)

50%

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daegu FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 145 matches

Pohang Steelers away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daegu FC attack 1.33 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Pohang Steelers attack 1.32 + Daegu FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Daegu FC scores more

37%

level

26%

Pohang Steelers scores more

37%

Daegu FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff