Pogradeci 1–2 Oriku: Result & Stats | 1st Division

Pogradeci

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Oriku

5/14/2022

1st Division · FinalsStadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Pogradeci59%

×Draw26%

Oriku15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PogradeciExpected goals in this matchOriku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.59

Pogradeci

1.48

Oriku

0.59

Pogradeci creates 151% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 40 away

1.68

creates per match

0.40

0.79

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Pogradeci

1.68

Oriku

0.40

allows per match

Pogradeci

0.79

Oriku

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogradeci+0.00on par

Oriku+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogradeci ↓

Oriku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Pogradeci or draw

85%

Pogradeci or Oriku

74%

Draw or Oriku

41%

Winning margin

Pogradeci wins by 2+

31%

Oriku wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Pogradeci 1+ goals

77%

Pogradeci 2+ goals

43%

Pogradeci 3+ goals

19%

Oriku 1+ goals

45%

Oriku 2+ goals

12%

Oriku 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Pogradeci (draw refunded)

80%

Oriku (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogradeci at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.79 · 72 matches

Oriku away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogradeci attack 1.68 + Oriku defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Oriku attack 0.40 + Pogradeci defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pogradeci scores more

59%

level

26%

Oriku scores more

15%

Pogradeci at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pogradeci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff