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Oriku vs Pogradeci — 1st Division 2019

Oriku
Oriku
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pogradeci
Pogradeci
9/28/20191st Division1st Division · Round 3Fusha Sportive Orikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Oriku45%
×Draw28%
Pogradeci27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriku
1.34
Pogradeci
0.96

Oriku creates 40% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 73 away

creates per match

Oriku
1.28
Pogradeci
1.15

allows per match

Oriku
0.77
Pogradeci
1.41

finishing

Oriku+0.00on par
Pogradeci+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriku ↓

Pogradeci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Oriku or draw
73%
Oriku or Pogradeci
72%
Draw or Pogradeci
55%

Winning margin

Oriku wins by 2+
21%
Pogradeci wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oriku 1+ goals
74%
Oriku 2+ goals
39%
Oriku 3+ goals
15%
Pogradeci 1+ goals
62%
Pogradeci 2+ goals
25%
Pogradeci 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oriku (draw refunded)
63%
Pogradeci (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriku at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 39 matches

Pogradeci away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriku attack 1.28 + Pogradeci defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Pogradeci attack 1.15 + Oriku defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oriku scores more
45%
level
28%
Pogradeci scores more
27%

Oriku at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oriku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oriku vs Pogradeci

Oriku beat Pogradeci 1-0 in 1st Division on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Orikum in Orikum.