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Pogradeci vs Maliqi — 1st Division 2019

Pogradeci
Pogradeci
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Maliqi
Maliqi
12/14/20211st Division1st Division · Round 13Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Pogradeci68%
×Draw20%
Maliqi12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogradeci
2.06
Maliqi
0.74

Pogradeci creates 178% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 16 away

creates per match

Pogradeci
1.68
Maliqi
0.69

allows per match

Pogradeci
0.79
Maliqi
2.44

finishing

Pogradeci+0.00on par
Maliqi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogradeci ↓

Maliqi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pogradeci or draw
88%
Pogradeci or Maliqi
80%
Draw or Maliqi
32%

Winning margin

Pogradeci wins by 2+
43%
Maliqi wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Pogradeci 1+ goals
87%
Pogradeci 2+ goals
61%
Pogradeci 3+ goals
34%
Maliqi 1+ goals
52%
Maliqi 2+ goals
17%
Maliqi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pogradeci (draw refunded)
85%
Maliqi (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogradeci at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.79 · 72 matches

Maliqi away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogradeci attack 1.68 + Maliqi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.06

Maliqi attack 0.69 + Pogradeci defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Pogradeci scores more
68%
level
20%
Maliqi scores more
12%

Pogradeci at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Pogradeci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Pogradeci 2–3 Maliqi

Maliqi beat Pogradeci 3-2 in 1st Division on December 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku in Pogradec.