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Maliqi vs Pogradeci — 1st Division 2019

Maliqi
Maliqi
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Pogradeci
Pogradeci
4/23/20221st Division1st Division · Round 28Aneksi i Stadiumit Skenderbeu Korçe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Maliqi38%
×Draw25%
Pogradeci37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maliqi
1.44
Pogradeci
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

creates per match

Maliqi
1.47
Pogradeci
1.15

allows per match

Maliqi
1.67
Pogradeci
1.41

finishing

Maliqi+0.00on par
Pogradeci+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maliqi ↓

Pogradeci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Maliqi or draw
63%
Maliqi or Pogradeci
75%
Draw or Pogradeci
62%

Winning margin

Maliqi wins by 2+
18%
Pogradeci wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Maliqi 1+ goals
76%
Maliqi 2+ goals
42%
Maliqi 3+ goals
18%
Pogradeci 1+ goals
76%
Pogradeci 2+ goals
41%
Pogradeci 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Maliqi (draw refunded)
51%
Pogradeci (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maliqi at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Pogradeci away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maliqi attack 1.47 + Pogradeci defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Pogradeci attack 1.15 + Maliqi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Maliqi scores more
38%
level
25%
Pogradeci scores more
37%

Maliqi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maliqi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Maliqi 2–3 Pogradeci

Pogradeci beat Maliqi 3-2 in 1st Division on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Aneksi i Stadiumit Skenderbeu Korçe in Korçë.