Pogradeci 3–0 Elbasani: Result & Stats

Pogradeci

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Elbasani

2/1/2020

1st Division · Round 14Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Pogradeci64%

×Draw21%

Elbasani15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PogradeciExpected goals in this matchElbasani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.85

Pogradeci

1.98

Elbasani

0.85

Pogradeci creates 133% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 24 away

1.68

creates per match

0.92

0.79

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Pogradeci

1.68

Elbasani

0.92

allows per match

Pogradeci

0.79

Elbasani

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogradeci+0.00on par

Elbasani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogradeci ↓

Elbasani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pogradeci or draw

85%

Pogradeci or Elbasani

79%

Draw or Elbasani

36%

Winning margin

Pogradeci wins by 2+

39%

Elbasani wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Pogradeci 1+ goals

86%

Pogradeci 2+ goals

59%

Pogradeci 3+ goals

31%

Elbasani 1+ goals

57%

Elbasani 2+ goals

21%

Elbasani 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pogradeci (draw refunded)

81%

Elbasani (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogradeci at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.79 · 72 matches

Elbasani away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.29 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogradeci attack 1.68 + Elbasani defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.98

Elbasani attack 0.92 + Pogradeci defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pogradeci scores more

64%

level

21%

Elbasani scores more

15%

Pogradeci at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pogradeci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff