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Elbasani vs Pogradeci — 1st Division 2019

Elbasani
Elbasani
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pogradeci
Pogradeci
3/6/20211st Division1st Division · Round 14Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Elbasani39%
×Draw26%
Pogradeci35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elbasani
1.40
Pogradeci
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 73 away

creates per match

Elbasani
1.38
Pogradeci
1.15

allows per match

Elbasani
1.46
Pogradeci
1.41

finishing

Elbasani+0.00on par
Pogradeci+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elbasani ↓

Pogradeci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Elbasani or draw
65%
Elbasani or Pogradeci
74%
Draw or Pogradeci
61%

Winning margin

Elbasani wins by 2+
18%
Pogradeci wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Elbasani 1+ goals
75%
Elbasani 2+ goals
41%
Elbasani 3+ goals
17%
Pogradeci 1+ goals
73%
Pogradeci 2+ goals
37%
Pogradeci 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Elbasani (draw refunded)
53%
Pogradeci (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elbasani at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Pogradeci away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elbasani attack 1.38 + Pogradeci defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Pogradeci attack 1.15 + Elbasani defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Elbasani scores more
39%
level
26%
Pogradeci scores more
35%

Elbasani at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Elbasani 1–2 Pogradeci

Pogradeci beat Elbasani 2-1 in 1st Division on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu in Cërrik.